Ganji, Reform, and the Hardliners' Consolidation of Power in Iran

The reformist-religious dissident movement that started under Khatami will put the incoming Ahmadinejad regime into test in many respects. Ganji is burning fast in jail and it remains to be seen if others are willing to join forces to keep the flame of freedom alive.

The next two years will be the time frame, before the upcoming municipal elections, to see how the hardliners will attempt to wipe out/diminish as many signs of social and political freedoms that popped out in the scenes of Iranian public every now and again- though many of them were removed by the Judiciary and the Revolutionary Guards and their vigilantes forcibly as often as possible. It will be seen whether the 17 million voters and their families will rip the benefits of electing their saviour, i.e. Mr. Ahmadinejad, or not. It will be seen whether the reformists can revive their message of transparent and accountable government for all Iranians or not. It will be seen whether Ahmadinejad's regime will be the equivalent of Hoveida's regime under the Shah and will try to use oil dollars to guarantee a regime's survival for a short while until a combination of other forces come to overthrow it one day.

Mr. Ahmadinejad is lucky that he is not sworn in as President yet, but certainly someone else cannot help waiting for him to take the oath of office. The happiest person in Iran is Ayatollah Khamenei, who has, after 16 years, achieved what he wished to see from first year of his leadership: the President of the Islamic Republic will respect him the same way that Mr. Rajaie and Khamenei himself respected  and obeyed Ayatollah Khomeini. Khamenei is happily watching his former revolutionary veteran colleagues dispersed and discredited by a massive Radio Television Propaganda machine and a sheer seventeen-million minority of Iranian eligible voters. 

I agree that the consolidation of power, as a main objective of the hardliners, is now achieved, both theoretically and in many respects practically. But I am not sure if the challenge of getting rid of the air of reform can take place by employing massive mobilisation of vigilantes armed with boots, and batons. They will need to do more than that. Evidence to the uphill battle that is ahead of the hardliners are yesterday's events. Yesterday, the Police dispersed a pro-Ganji demonstration. These people, although not great in numbers, are those who braved the much politically fatigued and apathetic streets of Tehran to remind the victorious Hezbollahis (this is the way civilian clothing vigilantes are referred to) that not everybody is afraid of the hardliners. Perhaps, fear for Ganji's life was so empowering to many secular/pro-Ganji demonstrators that Hezbollah's fear was almost ignored.

Many have identified the appointment of a radical militant Basiji in the person of Ahmadi Moghadam as the State Police Chief as a sign of hardliners power consolidation, and precursor to more suppression. If anything, Ahmadi Moghadam's appointment is not that radical a move, relative to the precedent set by his eminence Ayatollah Khamenei. Ahmadi Moghadam is no different from the previous appointments in that all of Iran's State Police Chiefs, since the amalgamation of the Police, Gendermary, and the Islamic Revolutionary Committees in the early 1990s, have been appointed from the ranks of the Revolutionary Guard Commanders.

Along with me, the rest of the concerned world is awaiting to see whether the new administration will respect people's privacy (as promised by the former Revolutionary Guard/Basij Militia newly appointed State Police Chief) or not. I think we are all waiting to see whether Ahmadinejad's administration, and/or their grand mentor the Supreme Leader, will value life in the case of peaceful dissenters, such as Ganji, Saminejad, and Zarafshan who go on hunger strikes to defy all fear, hatred, and intolerance that the hardliners have constantly subjected them to. I just realised these names are so similar, Ahmadi Moghadam, the Police Chief, Ahmadi-nejad, the President; Are there any more Ahmadi-something in the upcoming regime...?

Ganji's hunger strike and the demonstration in his support yesterday is just the tip of the iceberg. Ahmadinejad's regime has to decide if it wants to be the supposed serving government of a  Supreme Leader and some 17 million much obedient subjects, or the government of an Iran for all Iranians.