Revenge of the Sheikh: Moin’s Rejection and Re-admission marks a New Episode in the Islamic Republic’s Power Politics’ Drama

Ayatollah Khamenei’s Catch 22 Offer to Moin will have critical implications for the  Islamic Republic of Iran, both domestically and internationally. The main message or the bottom line message of Khamenei to the rest of the planet was short and simple: The Constitution is Relevant, when it comes to the Supreme Leader’s Power, and Irrelevant, when it comes to People’s Rights!

Background:

On 23 May, upon the recommendation of the Parliament’s Speaker, Ayatollah Khamenei ordered the Council of Guardians to review the candidacy of two candidates that had been rejected by the Guardians. He, in effect, ordered the Guardians to accept them. One of these two candidates is a former member of President Khatami’s cabinet, the pro-reform candidate, Dr. Moin. Moin, during his campaign had indicated that his platform rejects the concept of “Sovereign’s Decree”. The question of “Sovereign’s Decree”, and the reformists’ opposition has been a controversial issue during the Khatami’s mandate. It has exposed deep differences between the rival conservative/fundamentalist factions and the reformist factions of the regime.

What is “the Sovereign’s Decree”?

The “Sovereign’s Decree” is a constitutional practice that accords with the authoritarian components of the Islamic Republic’s Constitution, derived from Section 110. Accordingly, the Supreme Leader has the right to directly interfere, through such sovereign decrees, in the daily activities of the elected institutions (such as the Parliament and the Presidency) and un-elected institutions of the government (such as the Guardian Council).

Perhaps, the most important example of such an exercise can be seen in the Supreme Leader’s 2001 direct order to the Parliament to withdraw the progressive, anti-conservative Press Law Reform Bill from the Parliament’s agenda permanently. The Supreme Leader, in so doing, cited “expediency/exigency”. “Expediency/exigency” is another fundamental concept in the Islamic Republic’s Constitution. According to this concept, which has been repeatedly mentioned in sections 110 ,112, and 177 of the Constitution, “the expediency of the regime in matters that are critical to its survival allows the Supreme Leader to ignore certain constitutional practices and thereby issue “Sovereign's Decrees” . In his most famous interference in the Parliament’s deliberation on reforming the draconian Press Law to a more liberal one, the Supreme Leader justified his interference as follows: “If the enemies infiltrate our Press, this will be a big danger to our security”. The present presidential contender, Mr. Karoubi, was the Parliament's Speaker at the time. Karoubi accepted the Supreme Leader's decree and withdrew the Press Law Reform Bill from the Parliament's agenda "permanently".

Implications:

The implications of the earlier rejection of the candidacy of Dr. Moin by the Guardian Council, and his likely admission back into the race by the Guardians upon the order of the Supreme Leader are constitutionally grave:

1) Domestically, the Supreme Leader’s constant, and consistent interference, as the Sovereign, shows to the people that their elected institutions are of no significance, especially when the accountability and transparency of the government and their fundamental rights and freedoms (such as the right to vote, to be elected, and the freedom of speech) are concerned.

2) Individually and politically, Dr. Moin and the reformist camp face a dilemma: Should Moin accept his admission to the race as a qualified candidate, as a result of the order of the Supreme Leader? The question is not whether he owes his admission to the Supreme Leader or not. The question is a question of principle:

He is opposed to arbitrary interferences of the Supreme Leader as practised according to the principle of “Sovereign’s Decree”. If he accepts this interference as legal, he has contradicted his earlier “principled” opposition to “Sovereign’s Decree” principle.

In other words, if he were a qualified candidate and the Supreme Leader’s intervention is not just based upon “expediency”, but is based upon the fact that he is a qualified candidate, why did the Guardians reject him in the first place? His acceptance would be tantamount to a Machiavellian action.

3) Domestically, the electorate realizes that Moin, whether he accepts this order and campaigns again or not, is a very weak statesperson and is not able to withstand arbitrary actions of the ruling elite. This incident may cause many people to believe that voting in this round would be nothing but an exercise of futility. Those who may choose to vote may decide to vote either for the pragmatist Rafsanjani or any other conservative/fundamentalist

4) Internationally, the EU and the US become increasingly alarmed that they have to focus their efforts concerning Iran’s nuclear ambitions on the Supreme Leader. Regardless of his constitutionally supreme position as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, the Intelligence and the Security institutions of the state, Khamenei, by this exercise, comes out as the strongest actor in Iranian politics.

5) Internationally, foreign investors may realize that the situation in Iran is again increasingly unpredictable. They may decide to readjust their contribution to Iran's foreign investment basket.

6) Internationally and domestically, many may wish to see a power-broker as the President, which means, Rafsanjani might come out as a powerful candidate out of this squabble. Those, whether from rural areas or urban areas, who would choose to vote may overwhelmingly vote for him as the best compromise.

7) The fate of the presidential election is still in the hands of the Guardians who will have the final say over approving the results of the elections in every single riding as well as the overall result nationwide.